Australia's gold mining industry has 'bright' future – Surbiton Associates

The consultancy points out that Australia's gold production has averaged more than 300 t/y since 2027 and, in 2025, the country's mines produced 303 t of gold, valued at about A$54-billion at the prices prevailing during 2025.

Surbiton Associates director Dr Sandra Close notes that  Australia is essentially a land of small to medium-sized gold deposits. At the moment, there are about 80 gold-only operations and a further 20 operations that produce gold as a by-product.

“While we are usually cautious about predictions, there are some big new projects and some large plant expansions coming on stream in the next few years.

“Late 2026 and during 2027 will see several substantial expansions of existing operations. Of these, Super Pit will be the largest by far, with its treatment capacity doubling,” she says.

Northern Star Resources’ new plant at the Super Pit, in Kalgoorlie, will increase treatment capacity from 13-million to 27-million tonnes a year. Close states that Northern Star has immense tonnages of low-grade stockpiled material that higher gold prices have made more profitable to treat. Commissioning of the new plant is underway.

Further, Newmont Corporation has almost completed a new shaft, costing over A$2.3-billion, at its Tanami mine, in the Northern Territory, which will have a capacity to hoist 3.8-million tonnes of ore a year from deep underground. It will replace the existing truck haulage system of 2.7-million tonnes a year and reduce production costs, while increasing output by about 150 000 oz/y.

At Karlawinda, in Western Australia, Capricorn Metals is increasing treatment capacity from four-million to 6.5-million tonnes a year, with total gold production expected to increase to 150 000 oz/y shortly

In addition, Vault Minerals's King of the Hills operation will see its Stage 2 expansion increase capacity by 50%, resulting in a 35% increase in gold output. Although commissioning is expected in about mid-2027, production parameters might change with the recent announcement of the merger of Vault with Genesis Minerals, Surbiton Associates points out.

“By 2028, further production is expected from at least three more sources. One of these is a plant addition, while the other two are from the rejuvenation of shallow pits not mined since the 1990s,” Close says.

Ora Banda Mining has announced plans to build a new three-million-tonne-a-year treatment plant at Davyhurst, in Western Australia, costing $375-million, which is expected to start production in the second half of 2028.

Meanwhile, planning and permitting continues at Capricorn’s Mt Gibson development, in Western Australia. The resource base totals 4.8-million ounces, including reserves of 3.3-million ounces, with over 17 years’ mine life. Gold output is estimated to rise to 260 000 oz/y with commissioning expected in early 2028.

At Minerals 260’s Bullabulling project in Western Australia, resources are now estimated at 6.2-million ounces of gold with an increase in reserves expected to be announced soon. Yearly gold production is planned to be 150 000 oz/y to 200 000 o/zy, with first production planned for late 2028.

“Further developments are slated to commence in 2030. Northern Star’s massive Hemi deposit in Western Australia is expected to treat ten-million tonnes of ore a year from 2030 onwards, initially producing 550 000 oz/y of gold,” says Close.

Canada’s Vista Gold Corp has also announced that it will develop the Mt Todd operation in the Northern Territory by 2030. Production is expected to be about five-million tonnes a year, yielding about 150000 oz/y.

Meanwhile, the development of Regis Resources McPhillamys project in New South Wales still remains uncertain.

Close says Surbiton Associates estimates that Australia is probably the largest producer of newly mined gold in the world, noting that the list of expected expansions and new developments should lead to even higher production.

She adds that while China and Russia currently produce more gold in total, their figures include recycled gold, plus imports of gold in concentrates and impure gold for refining.

“Naturally, some Australian gold producing operations may close in the next few years, but this will probably be more than offset by the various projects mentioned above.

“In addition, given the higher gold prices, there are many junior companies with small undeveloped gold deposits which could take advantage of any spare treatment capacity that becomes available,” Close says.

Surbiton Associates published its latest data alongside the start of this year's Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum.