Central banks see gold prices trading between $5,000 and $6,000 in 12 months - OMFIF Survey

According to OMFIF's 2026 Global Public Investor report, gold has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of growing geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over sovereign debt and the gradual evolution toward a more multipolar monetary system. The survey found that reserve managers continue to view bullion as one of the most effective tools for protecting national wealth against an increasingly unpredictable world.

In an interview with Kitco News, Andrea Correa, Head of Research at OMFIF, said that despite the cost of adding to reserves skyrocketing as gold rallied to record highs, reserve managers remain firmly committed to ongoing purchases of the precious metal.

"Gold is not moving anywhere," she said. "Reserve managers of the central banks are still very bullish on gold. Despite the fact that the gold value itself keeps rising, they are still demanding it."

OMFIF surveyed 74 central banks managing more than $10 trillion in assets. The report found that 82% of respondents now hold physical gold, up from 71% a year ago, while a net 30% plan to increase their gold allocations over the next one to two years.

Gold ranked as the most sought-after reserve asset among all surveyed asset classes.

Correa said one of the report's most significant findings is the continued expansion in the number of central banks holding physical bullion.

"The amount of central banks holding physical gold increased by around 10 percentage points, which I think is a huge increase, and it's just been increasing every year," she said.

She added that today's geopolitical backdrop continues to reinforce gold's monetary role.

"With all the geopolitical shocks that we are seeing, the uncertainty and the movement around the global monetary system, gold is that asset that everyone is perceiving as safe,” Correa said. “That is not going to change in the short term."

The report also shows that central banks remain remarkably optimistic about bullion despite record prices. Sixty-one percent of respondents expect gold to trade between $5,000 and $6,000 an ounce by June 2027, while only 28% said higher prices are discouraging additional purchases.

According to OMFIF, diversification remains the primary reason that central banks want to own gold. However, geopolitical concerns are becoming increasingly important.

Protection against geopolitical risk was cited by 51% of reserve managers as a reason to own gold, up 11 percentage points from 2024. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the future of the international monetary system continues to reinforce gold's role as a long-term reserve asset rather than a tactical investment.

Correa noted that central bank demand is no longer being driven by just a handful of emerging-market buyers.

"The trend that we're seeing is actually global," she said. "When we talk about holding physical gold, Europe is saying they cannot increase much more because they already hold so much, whereas regions like Africa are more willing to increase their physical gold holdings."

The survey also highlights how dramatically the geopolitical landscape has shifted over the past year.

Rather than focusing primarily on trade tensions, reserve managers now identify conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy and energy security as the biggest macroeconomic risks facing reserve portfolios. Eighty-five percent of respondents cited the Middle East conflict as their top geopolitical concern, while 81% pointed to uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.

Nearly 80% of reserve managers also believe the global monetary system is gradually evolving toward a more multipolar structure. While the U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency because of its unrivaled liquidity, central banks increasingly expect to reduce their dollar exposure over the coming decade while diversifying into alternative reserve assets.

She added that even if annual purchases begin to moderate, central banks continue to expect gold to play a larger role in reserve portfolios over the long term.

"When you ask central banks about the long term—10 years—gold is still the second asset they name. They no longer say they want to increase government bonds. Instead, they shift toward corporate bonds, then gold, and then public equities."

Correa said the survey points to an important evolution in reserve management. While capital preservation remains the dominant objective today, reserve managers increasingly recognize that navigating a more volatile geopolitical landscape will eventually require broader diversification beyond traditional government debt.

"Central banks have always put capital preservation as the biggest thing, and that is still true," she said. "In the short term they still say, 'Yes, we are going to invest in bonds because that's safer.' But when you ask them about the long term, they do realize that they have to start to diversify."

That shift is reflected in the survey's long-term asset allocation preferences. Over the next decade, corporate bonds have become central banks' preferred asset class for future allocation increases, followed by gold and then public equities. The findings suggest reserve managers increasingly see high-quality corporate credit as a way to enhance returns while maintaining liquidity, with equities representing a more selective opportunity farther down the road.

Correa emphasized that central banks are not abandoning their conservative approach. Rather, they are accepting that persistent geopolitical shocks and a changing monetary landscape require a broader set of reserve assets.

"Right now they cannot afford to be risky," she said. "But they have to look to the future and say, 'We need to diversify a little bit, and we need to get a little bit of the returns.' That's why they're starting to think about corporate bonds and, eventually, public equities."

She added that this thinking inspired the title of this year's report, Riding the Wave.

"We're not looking at this as a transition shock that is going to go away,” Correa said. “These shocks are going to stay. Central banks are starting to realize it's important to think about assets that can give a little bit more return and diversify more in the long run."