Copper rivalry gives African producers leverage to demand more value, says analyst
The intensifying competition among China, the US and Europe to secure future copper supplies is strengthening the negotiating position of African producer countries, creating an opportunity to capture more value from the energy transition, political scientist and economist Gaylor Montmasson-Clair says.
Speaking in the third episode of Creamer Media's IN FOCUS copper series (watch Episode 3 here), he said copper's growing importance to electrification, renewable energy, digital infrastructure and AI had transformed the metal from a traditional industrial commodity into a strategic resource.
"Copper is not just a commodity anymore, it is really a strategic input," he said, describing the metal as the "connective tissue" of the energy transition. Copper demand is expected to rise from about 23-million tonnes a year currently to more than 40-million tonnes by 2040, while clean-energy technologies are projected to account for more than half of global copper demand by 2050.
The shift is placing countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia at the centre of a geopolitical contest as major economies seek to secure long-term access to critical minerals.
While Chile and Peru remain the largest holders of copper reserves, the DRC ranks third globally and Zambia is also a significant producer, giving both countries growing strategic importance in global supply chains.
At the same time, concerns are mounting over the concentration of downstream processing capacity in China, which refines about half of the world's copper and has added most of the new smelting capacity built over the past decade.
That concentration has prompted efforts by the US and Europe to diversify supply chains and secure alternative trade routes, including support for the Lobito Corridor linking the Central African Copperbelt to Angola's Atlantic coast.
However, Montmasson-Clair argued that many of these initiatives remained focused on securing access to raw materials rather than building industrial capacity in producing countries.
"The competition that we see between these geographies provides quite a strong opportunity for African countries to demand more," he said. "We have the leverage now to play a much bigger role in those value chains and not just be suppliers of raw materials."
He pointed to efforts by the DRC and Zambia to establish a joint special economic zone as an example of how producer countries were seeking to capture greater value through processing, manufacturing and downstream industries. However, he stressed that regional cooperation would be critical if African producers were to strengthen their negotiating position and convert mineral wealth into long-term industrial development.
Montmasson-Clair cautioned that producer countries remained vulnerable to being sidelined in the broader geopolitical contest between major powers if they failed to seize the current opportunity.
"What is important is to recognise the window of opportunity and to act on it," he said, arguing that the current moment offered a chance to build more resilient and mutually beneficial mineral value chains.
The interview formed part of the third episode of Creamer Media's five-part IN FOCUS series examining the demand, supply, geopolitical and investment trends shaping the future of the copper market.
