Copper set to test $15000 as investors await US data, tariff clarity
LONDON - Copper prices could break through $15000 for the first time as soon as this week, analysts said on Tuesday, as investors position for another round of US economic data and President Donald Trump keeps the market guessing on import tariffs.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time peak of $14779 per metric ton, climbing for a fourth straight session as the rally showed no sign of slowing.
"Will it get to $15000 this week on Trump's tariff confusion? Sure, that's possible," said Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price. "You can pick any big number when there's this much speculative capital behind a trading idea."
The US has proposed a 15% tariff on refined copper imports from the start of 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, but has neither confirmed nor ruled out a duty.
The prospect of tariffs has seen large volumes of copper flow into COMEX-approved warehouses in the US, draining inventories on the LME and in top metals consumer China.
At just over 300000 tons combined, LME and ShFE copper stocks are less than half COMEX stocks at record highs of 695624 tons, with an open arbitrage window helping fuel bumper US imports.
DATA IN FOCUS
Macro events later this week will likely determine whether copper's price gain lasts, said Alastair Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex, pointing to details on a US Treasury bond buyback expected on Wednesday and US Consumer Price Index data for August due on Friday.
Copper could be vulnerable to profit-taking if the dollar .DXY recovers after the CPI release, broker Sucden Financial wrote in a note. A stronger US currency makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for investors using other currencies.
Still, there is scope for further gains if copper holds above $14400, Sucden said.
Morgan Stanley's fourth-quarter forecast of $14250 could be overshot depending on how and when any tariff decision is made, said Amy Gower, head of metals and mining commodity strategy at the bank, which remains positive on copper for the rest of 2026.
"However, we remain more cautious into 2027, where US import demand is likely to be softer if tariffs are either in place or ruled out," Gower said.
As long as there is no clarity on tariffs, copper should continue to rise, said SP Angel analyst John Meyer.
"There's plenty of physical copper in the world, but it's all in the United States."
