Gold, silver climb as U.S. data keep Fed path mixed
Spot gold and silver finished firmer after the U.S. data mix showed stronger job creation, steady unemployment and weakening household sentiment. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,716.20 an ounce, up 0.65% on the session, while spot silver was at $80.300, up 2.57%.
April nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Job gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing and retail trade, while federal government employment continued to decline.
The preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell to 48.2 from 49.8 in April, with current conditions down 9.0% month over month. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5% from 4.7%, while long-run inflation expectations slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%.
The data mix left precious metals supported but not unambiguously rate-cut bullish. Payrolls reduced near-term labor-market recession risk, while softer sentiment and easing inflation expectations gave gold room to hold above $4,700. Silver outperformed, with the gold-silver ratio easing as spot silver held above $80.
Militarily, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is still nominally in place but is under severe strain: U.S. forces have struck Iranian military assets and disabled Iranian tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz after reported attacks on U.S. warships, while Iran has seized the Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman and is asserting authority over commercial transits.
Commercially, Hormuz remains effectively closed or heavily constrained, keeping a material risk premium in energy even as crude sold off on hopes for a deal. But the economic damage is broader than spot oil: tanker traffic is disrupted, Gulf importers and Asian refiners face rerouting and supply-security costs and investors are pricing a longer period of constrained access rather than a clean reopening.
The key outside markets saw Nymex WTI crude oil settle near $95.42 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $101.29. The U.S. dollar index was softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,780 to $4,790 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,860 and then $4,880. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,674, with deeper downside targets at $4,660 and then $4,635. First resistance is seen at $4,749 and then at $4,780. First support is seen at $4,674 and then at $4,660.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $78.00 to $79.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $85.00 and then $86.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $77.20, with deeper downside targets at $72.00 and then $71.00. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at $85.00. Next support is seen at $77.20 and then at $72.00.
