Gold breaks $4,440 as U.S.-Iran fighting pressures markets
Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower after the close Wednesday, as crude oil rallied, Treasury yields rose and renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pressured non-yielding metals. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,432.60 an ounce, down 1.24%, while spot silver was trading near $72.755, down 3.17% on the session.
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, above the 110,000 consensus and the strongest ADP print in 16 months. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April, with business activity at 57.7, new orders at 57.3, employment at 47.9 and prices at 71.3, the highest prices reading since August 2022. Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said the “Employment Index contracted for the third month in a row.” The Fed’s Beige Book said economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in 10 of 12 districts, while prices increased at a moderate to strong pace as energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict spilled into shipping, packaging, groceries and fertilizer.
Oil settled higher for a third straight session after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire and talks over reopening the strait stalled. WTI settled at $96.02 and Brent at $97.81, with analysts warning that 11 million to 14 million barrels a day could be at risk if the waterway remains closed. The current impact on gold is mixed but negative on balance: conflict risk supports defensive demand, while higher crude, a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields are pressuring non-yielding metals. Across other markets, the clearest transmission is higher crude, weaker equities, firmer yields, stronger energy-inflation risk and renewed volatility in shipping-sensitive sectors.
U.S. equities closed lower as oil and Treasury yields rose. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,553.68, snapping a nine-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% to 50,687.07, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% to 26,853.98 and the Russell 2000 fell 1.3% to 2,893.50. The pullback came after record closes earlier in the week, with small caps hit hardest as yields rose and the market repriced Middle East risk.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and settled around $96.02 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $97.81. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,436 to $4,460 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500 and then $4,526. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,426.40, with deeper downside targets at $4,400 and then $4,367. First resistance is seen at $4,436 and then at $4,460. First support is seen at $4,426.40 and then at $4,400.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $73.20 to $73.84 area, with a move above that zone targeting $74.50 and then $75.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $72.63, with deeper downside targets at $72.00 and then $70.00. First resistance is seen at $73.20 and then at $73.84. Next support is seen at $72.63 and then at $72.00.
