Gold breaks below $4,540, silver tests $75 as yields rise, Hormuz talks cap oil
Spot gold is down and spot silver is sharply lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as higher Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar continued to pressure non-yielding metals. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,524.10 an ounce, down 0.90%, while spot silver was trading near $75.500, down 2.65% on the session.
Gold and silver remain trapped between two conflicting macro signals. The Middle East risk premium has not disappeared, but the dominant trading impulse is still the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield is holding near the 4.6% area after Monday’s Treasury close at 4.61%. The dollar’s recovery toward the 100 area has added a second headwind for internationally priced metals, while silver’s larger industrial beta has amplified the downside move.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central geopolitical variable for energy, rates and precious metals. Oil prices pulled back after President Donald Trump paused a planned strike on Iran to allow more time for negotiations, but the waterway is still effectively constrained and crude remains above $100 a barrel. The current market effect is two-sided for gold: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, while $100-plus WTI, Brent above $110 and gasoline inflation keep yields elevated and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. For other key markets, the impact is most visible in crude, gasoline, long-end Treasury yields, the dollar and pressure on rate-sensitive equities.
U.S. equity futures were lower before the open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, Dow futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures down 0.6%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 3.3%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite added 0.9%. European markets were firmer at midday, with France’s CAC 40 up 0.8%, Germany’s DAX up 1.4% and Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.6%.
Traders are watching pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET, along with any update on U.S.-Iran negotiations and tanker movements through the Gulf.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices softer and trading around $103.97 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $111.15. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,540.64 to $4,572 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,600 and then $4,629. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,514.50, with deeper downside targets at $4,481.78 and then $4,400. First resistance is seen at $4,540.64 and then at $4,572. First support is seen at $4,514.50 and then at $4,481.78.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.28 to $77.56 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $79.82. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $75.21, with deeper downside targets at $75.00 and then $73.86. First resistance is seen at $76.28 and then at $77.56. Next support is seen at $75.21 and then at $75.00.
