Gold clears $4,500, silver rallies as Hormuz risk premium cools
Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, as a softer U.S. dollar, weaker crude oil and mixed U.S. equity futures framed the final session before the May employment report. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,505.90 an ounce, up 1.63%, while spot silver was trading at $74.390, up 2.44% on the session.
U.S. jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 225,000 in the week ended May 30, above the 215,000 expected, while continuing claims slipped to 1.78 million for the week ended May 23. The claims data followed Wednesday’s ADP print showing 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, above the 110,000 consensus, and the official May employment report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into metals, energy, rates and FX. Oman is trying to keep a neutral role while resisting U.S. pressure over Iran’s proposed management regime for the waterway, and Washington remains suspicious of any structure that looks like a toll or transit-fee system.
The market impact this morning is contained rather than disorderly: Brent remains below $100 a barrel despite restricted Hormuz flows, oil is lower on de-escalation hopes, gold is benefiting from softer dollar conditions and residual geopolitical demand, and silver is getting added support from the broader precious-metals rebound.
U.S. equity futures were mixed before the open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4%, Nasdaq futures down 1.2% and Dow futures up 0.7% as tech weakness offset support from lower oil. Broadcom fell more than 15% in premarket trade after earnings, while global equity trading was mixed across Europe and Asia.
The key outside markets see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $93.72 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $95.39. The U.S. dollar index is softer but still near a two-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower in early trade, with no approved current intraday level included.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,500 to $4,526 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,576 and then $4,595. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,460, with deeper downside targets at $4,436 and then $4,350. First resistance is seen at $4,500 and then at $4,526. First support is seen at $4,460 and then at $4,436.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $75.50 to $75.80 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then the recent $80 region. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.10, with deeper downside targets at $73.20 and then $70.00. First resistance is seen at $75.50 and then at $75.80. Next support is seen at $74.10 and then at $73.20.
