Gold falls as oil jumps on U.S.-Iran deadlock
Spot gold and silver prices are lower after the close Monday, as crude oil jumped, Treasury yields firmed and U.S.-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,482.30 an ounce, down 1.26%, while spot silver was trading near $74.795, down 0.64% on the session.
The May ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.0 from 52.7 in April, marking a fifth straight month of expansion and the strongest reading since May 2022. New orders improved to 56.8 from 54.1, while the employment index remained in contraction at 48.6. April construction spending rose 0.4% to a $2.172 trillion seasonally adjusted annual rate, with private residential construction up 0.8% and public construction up 0.4%. The data mix reinforced the pressure on metals: factory activity is improving, construction is still expanding and input-cost uncertainty remains tied to oil, tariffs and Middle East risk.
Crude oil rallied after the weekend passed without a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the strait and the two sides exchanged strikes, with reports of Iran pausing talks after Israeli attacks in Lebanon before President Donald Trump said discussions were continuing. The current impact on gold is negative through higher oil, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, even though the conflict risk still supports defensive allocation at the margin. Across other markets, the clearest transmission is higher crude, pressure on fuel-sensitive equities, firmer yields, stronger energy shares and renewed volatility in shipping-sensitive sectors.
U.S. equities closed higher despite the oil shock, with technology and energy shares offsetting weakness tied to higher fuel costs. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,599.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% to 51,078.88 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4% to 27,086.81, all record closes. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.5% to 2,905.76 as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on smaller companies.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and settling around $92.16 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $94.98. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,500 to $4,514 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,546.90 and then $4,550. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,446.90, with deeper downside targets at $4,420 and then $4,400. First resistance is seen at $4,500 and then at $4,514. First support is seen at $4,446.90 and then at $4,420.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $74.97 to $76.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $76.42 and then $78.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $73.25, with deeper downside targets at $72.00 and then $70.00. First resistance is seen at $74.97 and then at $76.00. Next support is seen at $73.25 and then at $72.00.
