Gold firms, silver jumps as oil slips on Iran talks
Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as lower oil prices and easing Treasury-yield pressure supported metals while U.S.-Iran headlines kept the Strait of Hormuz risk premium alive. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,516.70 an ounce, up 0.70%, while spot silver was trading near $76.085, up 1.63% on the session.
The U.S. calendar is centered on April JOLTS job openings at 10 a.m. ET, with ADP payrolls, factory orders, durable goods revisions, ISM services and the Fed Beige Book due Wednesday before Friday’s May jobs report. The rate backdrop is less hostile than Monday’s session, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near the 4.5% area, but the U.S. dollar remains firm enough to keep gold capped below the $4,550 to $4,576 resistance zone.
Oil prices slipped after Monday’s surge as traders weighed mixed signals from U.S.-Iran talks aimed at reopening the strait, while prediction-market odds of a permanent peace deal and full reopening this month have fallen sharply from late-May highs. The current impact on gold is two-sided: lower crude and lower yields support the rate backdrop for non-yielding assets, but unresolved Hormuz risk sustains defensive demand and keeps oil-sensitive inflation risk in play. Across other markets, the clearest transmission remains in crude, refined fuels, shipping risk, Treasury duration, the U.S. dollar and energy-linked equities.
Global equities were mixed before the U.S. open. U.S. futures pointed slightly lower, with Dow futures down 0.4%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.1%, after major indexes closed at records Monday. Asia was weaker as renewed fighting threatened the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while European shares were firmer in early trade as lower oil reduced the immediate inflation shock.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $92.31 a barrel, while Brent crude was near the $95 area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,526 to $4,550 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,576 and then $4,635. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,500, with deeper downside targets at $4,462.50 and then $4,418. First resistance is seen at $4,526 and then at $4,550. First support is seen at $4,500 and then at $4,462.50.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.55 to $77.32 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $75.80, with deeper downside targets at $75.50 and then $74.38. First resistance is seen at $76.55 and then at $77.32. Next support is seen at $75.80 and then at $75.50.
