Gold prices surging higher to test resistance at $4,100 following sharp drop in U.S. inflation
The gold market has been thrown a critical lifeline as prices jumped back toward $4,100 an ounce following a sharp drop in inflation pressures, which should give the Federal Reserve room to leave interest rates unchanged through the second half of the year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Tuesday. The inflation data came in cooler than expected, with economists forecasting a 0.1% decline.
“This decline in the all-items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8%,” the report said.
Over the past 12 months, headline inflation increased by 3.5%, down sharply from the previous month's reading of 4.2%. Annual inflation also came in weaker than expected, as economists had forecast an increase of 3.8%.
Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged last month after rising 0.2% in May. According to consensus estimates, economists had forecast another 0.2% increase.
Over the past 12 months, annual core inflation rose by 2.6%, down from 2.9% reported in May.
The energy market remains the dominant factor behind June’s dramatic drop in inflation. The report said that the energy index fell 5.7% last month, after rising 3.9% in May, 3.8% in April, and 10.9% in March. For the year, the energy index is up 15.7%.
“The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all-items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes, including those for shelter and food,” the report said.
The gold market saw a nearly $60 jump in its initial reaction to the inflation data. However, the precious metal still has some work to do, as prices remain below $4,100 an ounce. Spot gold last traded at $4,087.40 an ounce, up more than 2% on the day.
Gold has caught a solid bid as the inflation data has significantly shifted market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Ahead of the data, markets were aggressively pricing in two rate hikes by the end of the year, with the first one coming as early as September. Markets now see only one rate hike by December.
Petros Pantzari, Chief Dealer at Monaxa, noted that gold could continue to rally as underlying price pressures fade much faster than markets expected.
However, he added that the U.S. economy and the inflation outlook face significant uncertainty and volatility.
“Today’s report clearly puts the inflation bulls on the back foot. But you have to take everything with a pinch of salt as oil prices have started to move back up and traders must not take their eyes off the ball,” he said.
Although inflation has dropped sharply since May, analysts note that core consumer prices remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Some analysts also note that underlying structural shifts in the U.S. and global economy could keep inflation pressures elevated. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at FTSE Russell, said that investors are looking beyond near-term volatility in oil prices. She added that investors are underestimating looming inflation threats.
She said that sticky inflation is being driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding global energy markets, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a Federal Reserve that is becoming less predictable under Chair Kevin Warsh. She noted that the Fed's reduced reliance on forward guidance and its evolving approach to assessing inflation add another layer of uncertainty.
"The reaction function of the Fed is changing dramatically, and that is an added layer of uncertainty," she said.
