Gold rises, silver slips as oil falls on Iran deal hopes
Spot gold prices are higher and spot silver prices are lower after the close Friday, as a sharp monthly drop in crude oil reduced inflation pressure while a firmer U.S. dollar kept silver under pressure. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,539.30 an ounce, up 0.97%, while spot silver was trading near $75.275, down 0.51% on the session.
April personal income was essentially flat, disposable personal income fell 0.1%, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5% and the saving rate fell to 2.6%. The PCE price index rose 3.8% from a year earlier, while May Chicago PMI jumped to 62.7 from 49.2, beating the 50.5 consensus. The data mix left the rate signal uneven: consumer spending remained firm, inflation stayed well above target and regional manufacturing momentum improved, while lower oil and steady Treasury yields reduced the immediate pressure on metals.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into energy, inflation expectations and precious metals, but Friday’s market traded the prospect of reopening rather than fresh escalation. Oil posted its steepest monthly drop since 2020 as traders priced a possible U.S.-Iran agreement that could extend the ceasefire by 60 days and gradually restore shipping through the strait. WTI settled near $87.36 a barrel and Brent near $92.05, leaving both benchmarks down sharply for May.
For gold, the impact is mixed: lower oil and softer inflation risk support the rate backdrop for non-yielding assets, but reduced conflict risk trims safe-haven demand. Across other markets, the clearest effects were lower crude, record U.S. equity closes, steady Treasury yields and a firmer dollar.
U.S. equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to 7,580.06 for its seventh straight daily gain and ninth straight weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to 51,032.46 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,972.62, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,919.34. Tech led the tape, with Dell Technologies up 32.8% after earnings, while Brent crude’s 1.7% decline helped reduce the inflation shock that had weighed on risk appetite earlier in the month.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and settled around $87.36 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $92.05. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,550 to $4,576 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,600 and then $4,660. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,526, with deeper downside targets at $4,500 and then $4,460. First resistance is seen at $4,550 and then at $4,576. First support is seen at $4,526 and then at $4,500.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.00 to $76.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.97, with deeper downside targets at $74.26 and then $73.20. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. Next support is seen at $74.97 and then at $74.26.
