JPMorgan sees $4 500 gold price in fourth quarter, says risks to downside
JPMorgan said demand for gold from key sectors would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year to $4 300/oz in the third quarter and $4 500/oz in the fourth quarter.
The bank said the risks to its forecast skew to the downside, given possible early interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve if data were to come in hot over the balance of the summer.
As recently as June 9, JPMorgan had said it expected gold prices to rise to $6,000 by year end.
On Friday, spot gold was up 1.3% at $4 174.21 per ounce at 1241 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 23. Bullion was up over 2% for the week so far.
High interest rates would weigh on non-yielding bullion as investors turn to assets that offer better returns.
The bank retained a long-term bullish view, saying gold could extend gains in 2027 as central bank purchases and physical demand strengthen amid enduring structural drivers of accumulation.
It also forecast silver prices to average $60 to $65 per ounce over its outlook horizon as the market moves away from last year's tight physical conditions and the gold-to-silver ratio normalizes.
Platinum prices are expected to average about $1800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and rise to around $1950 per ounce by the end of 2027, supported by supply-side fundamentals in South Africa.
The bank forecasts palladium prices at $1350 per ounce by end-2026, and expects it to average around $1300 in 2027, in line with broader weakness across the precious metals complex.
