US copper imports this year unlikely to beat 2025 record, analysts say

Copper prices on COMEX are again trading higher than the London Metal Exchange global benchmark, triggering renewed inflows to the US as the market waits to see if US President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on imports of the metal.

The US sucked in massive volumes of copper last year on bets of looming tariffs, with COMEX stocks rising to 461 833 t from less than 100 000 t in a five-fold increase. Refined copper was ultimately given an exemption from US tariffs but the issue remains under review.

"The market always has to price in some probability of a tariff," said Guy Wolf, global head of market analytics at broker Marex, on the sidelines of LME Asia Week in Hong Kong.

"I don't think you can see the same level of material flowing into the US (as in 2025)," he said. "This time it's going to be harder for people to get what seems to be a risk-free, massive opportunity."

US refined copper imports in the first quarter of this year were over 500 000 t, according to Trade Data Monitor, on pace to beat last year's record 1.64-million tons, but some analysts doubt the rate can be maintained.

"It will be unlikely to see the same amount of volume go to the US. as ... last year, given current stock levels. There are already around one-million tons," said Howard Lau, director of Asia materials research at HSBC, referring to exchange and non-exchange inventories.

COMEX copper stocks are currently at 561 066 t, more than half of its copper storage capacity of 1.05-million tons.

Meanwhile, surging logistics costs owing to the conflict in the Middle East are pushing up the premium required to draw copper into the US.

"The war risk premium shot up by 40 to 60 times within two weeks after the war," said Sabrina Qian, a director of
shipbroker IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Singapore.

However, some still see the first-quarter numbers as signs of another big year of US copper inflows.

The US is on track to import nearly 1.2-million tons more than it did in the pre-Trump era in 2024, according to longtime copper bull Nicholas Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria.

That would put U.S. copper imports for this year at more than two-million tons, based on a 2024 import figure of around 900 000 t from the US Geological Survey.

The US has already imported nearly 800 000 t in the first four months of 2026, Snowdon said.

That pull, along with demand in top copper consumer China, where exchange inventories are plummeting, is going to take the market into a significant deficit, he said.