Silver firms while gold slips on Hormuz uncertainty
Spot gold prices are lower and spot silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, as a stronger U.S. dollar and higher oil prices weighed on bullion while silver held a positive session. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,506.50 an ounce, down 0.72%, while spot silver was trading near $75.875, up 0.80% on the session.
The U.S. calendar opens June with the ISM Manufacturing Index and April construction spending, both due at 10 a.m. ET. The May jobs report on Friday remains the week’s main macro event, with ADP payrolls, factory orders, durable goods revisions, ISM services and the Fed Beige Book due Wednesday. The rate backdrop is still restrictive for precious metals, with the 10-year Treasury yield near the 4.5% area and the dollar firmer as renewed Middle East risk supports haven demand for the currency.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into oil, inflation expectations and precious metals. Oil rose around 3% after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, while negotiations continued over a possible memorandum of understanding covering sanctions, Iran’s nuclear program and measures to reopen the strait. Tanker flows remain impaired, with Iran saying four oil tankers passed through the waterway versus a pre-war daily average near 130. Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote that markets still assume “the Strait of Hormuz will re-open.”
The current impact on gold is mixed: renewed conflict risk supports defensive interest, but higher oil prices lift inflation risk, Treasury yields and the dollar. Across other markets, the clearest effects are higher crude, stronger energy-linked inflation risk, firmer U.S. equity futures and continued volatility in shipping-sensitive sectors.
Global equities were mostly firmer before the U.S. open despite the latest oil move. Dow futures gained 0.5%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% and Nasdaq futures added 0.2%. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 was down 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.2% and Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at a record 66,934.33 after crossing 67,000 intraday, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.7% to a record 8,788.38.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.29 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $93.64. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,514 to $4,550 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,576 and then $4,600. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,500, with deeper downside targets at $4,488.90 and then $4,460. First resistance is seen at $4,514 and then at $4,550. First support is seen at $4,500 and then at $4,488.90.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.00 to $76.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.97, with deeper downside targets at $74.26 and then $73.25. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. Next support is seen at $74.97 and then at $74.26.
