Silver outperforms gold to test $80 as US-Iran talks drive metals volatility
Spot gold prices were firmer and spot silver prices were sharply higher late Thursday, with traders balancing softer U.S. labor data against rising Treasury yields, oil volatility and another round of headlines tied to the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,700.60 an ounce, up 0.23%, while spot silver was trading near $79.230, up 2.59% on the session.
Initial unemployment claims rose to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, up 10,000 from the prior week’s revised 190,000. The four-week moving average fell to 203,250, down 4,500 from the prior week’s revised average. Separately, nonfarm business productivity rose 0.8% in the first quarter, while unit labor costs increased 2.3%. The claims print kept labor-market cooling in the frame ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, while the productivity data gave metals traders a cleaner read on wage-cost pressure than the energy-driven inflation debate.
Headline risk remained active. Iran established a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to approve transit and collect tolls from ships moving through Hormuz, while the U.S. and Gulf allies pushed for U.N. Security Council action to protect free navigation. Trump suspended a U.S. military effort to open safe passage through the strait, giving negotiations more time, while Pakistan said it remained in continuous contact with both Washington and Tehran. Iran had not yet responded to the latest U.S. proposal, and India said 11 of its ships had exited the strait while 13 remained in the Persian Gulf.
The key outside markets saw Nymex WTI crude oil trading near $95.96 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $101.44. The U.S. dollar index was softer earlier in the session before stabilizing. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.41%.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,750.00 to $4,790.70 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,850.68 and then $5,028.04. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,541.88, with deeper downside targets at $4,495.33 and then $4,401.84. First resistance is seen at $4,750.00 and then at $4,790.70. First support is seen at $4,541.88 and then at $4,495.33.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $78.00 to $79.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $85.00 and then $86.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $77.38, with deeper downside targets at $72.00 and then $71.00. First resistance is seen at $79.00 and then at $85.00. Next support is seen at $77.38 and then at $72.00.
