Spot gold lower, silver strong as traders assess global data, central bank outlook
Spot gold prices are slightly down and spot silver prices are modestly firmer in early U.S. trading Friday, as traders digest a heavy slate of global economic data and continue to assess the outlook for central bank policy following this week’s major decisions. A slightly softer U.S. dollar index and easing Treasury yields are providing mild support to the precious metals, while still-elevated crude oil prices and persistent inflation concerns are limiting stronger upside momentum. As of 9:00 a.m. Eastern, spot gold was trading near $4,594.70 an ounce, down 0.54% on the day, while spot silver was near $74.48 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day.
The key U.S. data this morning are the final S&P Global manufacturing PMI for April at 9:45 a.m. Eastern and the April ISM manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
Central bank developments remain in focus following this week’s policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, all of which held rates steady while emphasizing caution on inflation and signaling that policy easing may take longer than markets had previously anticipated. Officials across the major central banks continue to stress data dependency, with particular attention on inflation trends and the impact of higher energy prices.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to underpin crude oil prices, with ongoing concerns about supply disruptions through key shipping routes keeping energy markets elevated. This environment continues to provide an underlying layer of support for gold, even as macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and currency movements dominate near-term price action.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices still elevated and trading just below $104.00 a barrel in early U.S. dealings. The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently holding near 4.39%.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices above the $4,602 to $4,628 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,675 to $4,705. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,558, with deeper downside targets at $4,520 and then $4,472. First resistance is seen at $4,602 and then at $4,628. First support is seen at $4,558 and then at $4,520.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices above the $73.85 to $74.20 resistance zone, with a move above that area targeting $75.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $72.95, with deeper downside targets at $72.10 and then $71.20. First resistance is seen at $73.85 and then at $74.20. Next support is seen at $72.95 and then at $72.10.
