Copper surges to fresh record as inventories ‘locked in the US’
Copper extended a powerful rally after bursting through $13 000 a ton for the first time, as traders and investors bet on a tighter global market.
Three-month futures surged as much as 2% to a record above $13 253 a ton in London on Tuesday, surpassing the peak set on Monday. Concerns that the Trump administration may introduce a tariff on refined metal have drawn holdings into the US, potentially leaving the rest of the world short.
“Inventories used to act as a buffer, but now they’re locked in the US,” Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures Co., said by phone. “So the buffer is gone and everyone will have to scramble.”
Base metals have made a very strong start to 2026, with the LMEX Index that tracks the main six including copper surging to the highest level since March 2022, when the sector peaked. The red metal — used in wires and cables — has now racked up a gain of more than 20% since late November, while aluminum has rallied to the highest level in more than three years.
President Donald Trump fueled a rush to ship copper to the US in the first half of last year, before choosing to exempt refined metal from tariffs, prompting a pause. The trade then revived in recent months as a plan to revisit the question of levies caused local prices once again to trade at a premium. US copper imports in December jumped to the highest since July.
“The logic behind this rally remains,” said Li. “We need to track the trend and not get fixated on absolute price levels.”
The prospect of US import curbs, as well as optimism about demand given copper’s role in high-growth sectors like renewable energy, data centers and power grids, have fueled a wave of optimistic calls. Among them, Kostas Bintas, high-profile head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, warned in a November interview that the import rush would leave the rest of the world without copper, predicting “this is the big one” for bulls.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also remains constructive on copper, according to a note dated Jan. 5. The bank expects current strong pricing to be sustained given limited supply growth. “Recent feedback from Chinese downstream sectors suggested no notable destruction on order books amid high pricing,” it said.
Copper was up 1.7% at $13 207.50 a ton at 10:57 a.m. Shanghai time, after a gain of more than 4% on Monday.
