Gold and silver rally as crude slides on U.S.-Iran deal hopes
(Kitco News) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, supported by lower crude oil prices, a softer U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields as traders price in progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,744.80 an ounce, up 1.17%, while spot silver was trading at $81.150, up 5.06% on the session.
The U.S. data flow this morning was mixed but not hostile to metals. Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending May 2 from 190,000 the prior week, below the 205,000 forecast listed before the release. First-quarter nonfarm business productivity increased 0.8%, while unit labor costs rose 2.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate; manufacturing productivity rose 3.6% and manufacturing unit labor costs increased 2.4%.
The labor-market backdrop remains central ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. ADP said private employers added 109,000 jobs in April, the fastest pace since January 2025. The data was below the 118,000 consensus but above March’s 61,000 gain, with annual pay up 4.4%.
The overnight macro driver was the crude price reversal. WTI crude fell $3.23 to $91.85 and Brent lost $3.30 to $97.97 as markets waited to see whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a deal allowing tankers to move crude through the Persian Gulf again. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, Dow futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq futures were essentially unchanged before the open.
Global equities were firmer in Asia and mixed in Europe. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 6% to 63,086.00 as Tokyo reopened after Golden Week, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.7%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.4% to another record and Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.9%. Germany’s DAX was up 0.2% at midday, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.3% and Britain’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3%.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $91.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $97.97. The U.S. dollar index is softer, with DXY near 97.88, down 0.15%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.3% area.
U.S. traders are also watching scheduled remarks from Fed officials later today, including Hammack and Williams, after this week’s data reinforced a mixed picture of resilient labor conditions but softer pockets of demand.
Technically, spot gold is extending its rebound after this week’s volatility, with bulls’ next upside price objective to push prices above the $4,754.40 to $4,775 resistance zone, which would open the door to a move toward $4,820 to $4,850. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,684.60, with deeper downside targets at $4,650 and then $4,615. First resistance is seen at $4,754.40 and then at $4,775. First support is seen at $4,684.60 and then at $4,650.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices above the $81.81 to $82.50 resistance zone, with a move above that area targeting $84.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $73.14, with deeper downside targets at $72.00 and then $70.90. First resistance is seen at $81.81 and then at $82.50. Next support is seen at $73.14 and then at $72.00.
