Gold firms, silver gains as traders weigh Hormuz risk, dollar firmness
Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as perceived bargain hunting followed Monday’s futures-led selloff while elevated oil prices kept inflation and rate risks in focus. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,563.30 an ounce, up 0.92%, while spot silver was trading at $73.800, up 1.65% on the session.
Monday’s Comex decline set the baseline for the early rebound. May gold futures settled down $110.40, or 2.38%, at $4,519.50 an ounce, while May silver futures fell $2.879, or 3.79%, to $73.072 an ounce. Thin trading tied to holidays in China, Japan and the U.K. amplified the move.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The move marked the third consecutive increase this year and reflected renewed concern that higher energy prices and global supply stress could keep inflation above target. The decision reinforced the broader global theme that major central banks remain wary of easing too soon while oil prices remain elevated.
The main global focus remains the U.S.-Iran conflict and renewed stress around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased but remained elevated as markets reacted to fresh tensions involving U.S. and Iranian forces, a fire at the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub, and continued uncertainty around energy flows through the region. The situation remains a mixed influence for gold: geopolitical risk is supportive, but the oil-price shock is feeding inflation worries and keeping pressure on non-yielding assets through higher rate expectations.
Traders are watching the March JOLTS report at 10:00 a.m. ET, the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman at 10:00 a.m. ET, and Fed Governor Michael Barr at 12:30 p.m ET. Friday’s April employment report remains the week’s main U.S. macro event.
The geopolitical premium remains concentrated in energy. Brent crude for July delivery was near $112.73 a barrel, down 1.49%, while WTI crude for June delivery was near $103.94 a barrel, down 2.33%. Oil was lower on the session but still elevated after Monday’s Strait of Hormuz-driven spike.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $103.94 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $112.73. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold continues to consolidate after Monday’s sharp selloff, with bulls’ next upside price objective to push prices above the $4,568 to $4,615 resistance zone, which would open the door to a move toward $4,630.70 to $4,670. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,502.40, with deeper downside targets at $4,485 and then $4,450. First resistance is seen at $4,568 and then at $4,615. First support is seen at $4,502.40 and then at $4,485.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices above the $73.80 to $75.00 resistance zone, with a move above that area targeting $76.12. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $72.10, with deeper downside targets at $71.00 and then $70.00. First resistance is seen at $73.80 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at $72.10 and then at $71.00.
