Geopolitical chaos fuels gold and silver rally toward key milestones - Solomon Global’s Cawley
Gold and silver continue to trade near record highs and, according to one market strategist, both precious metals have room to move higher as geopolitical and economic uncertainty drives investment demand.
In a report published Monday, Nick Cawley, market analyst at Solomon Global, said that gold and silver prices are on track to hit key milestone numbers in the first half of 2026. Cawley is looking for gold to hit $5,000 an ounce and silver to push to $100 an ounce.
This week’s bullish momentum has been driven by renewed geopolitical chaos in the Middle East, as Iranian government forces have cracked down on — and even killed — demonstrators protesting soaring prices and rising costs of living.
Sunday night, U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration is weighing all its options on Iran, including cyberattacks and military action.
Also on Sunday, in an unprecedented video statement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Department of Justice had served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony this summer regarding the Federal Reserve’s building renovations.
Powell bluntly characterized the threat of criminal charges as a “pretext” to undermine the Fed’s independence when it comes to setting monetary policy.
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said.
“Against this volatile background, and with investors moving away from the U.S. dollar, demand for safe-haven assets continues,” said Cawley in his Monday note.
He added that it appears to be only a matter of time before gold and silver hit his latest upside targets, and any potential correction should be seen as a buying opportunity.
“Both metals close in on important 'big figures' at $5,000/oz and $100/oz, respectively,” he said.
“These levels act as important reference points for investors and will likely spark a new round of volatility. For longer-term investors, any sell-off from these levels provides a renewed opportunity to enter the market.”
In an updated outlook report published last week, Cawley said that despite rising market volatility, gold and silver will continue to thrive in the current unpredictable economic environment.
“Both metals remain in strong technical uptrends with momentum intact. Little appears capable of disrupting these trends in the near term. The combination of accommodative monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply constraints creates a powerful bullish cocktail for precious metals going forward,” he said.
Looking at gold’s technical picture, Cawley said that he sees some initial resistance at $4,750 an ounce, but that is unlikely to stop the rally from hitting $5,000 an ounce before the summer.
At the same time, with silver prices breaking above last month’s all-time highs, he said there is very little standing in the way of a run to $100. However, he also warned investors to use some caution.
“Anyone trading silver must be aware that price action is set to become increasingly volatile, causing regular 10%+, daily price swings,” he said. “The higher the price of silver goes, the more volatile it will become.”
