Global stocks take hit from tariff threats; gold gets safety bid
Global stocks slid and the dollar eased against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday after US President Donald Trump threatened to slap extra tariffs on goods imported from eight European nations until the US was allowed to buy Greenland.
Gold and silver prices jumped to all-time highs, while oil dipped on concerns about what a possible trade war between the US and Europe could mean for global growth and demand.
US cash equity markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, although S&P 500 ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 have dropped 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
For Europe, the STOXX 600 index fell 0.9%. Blue-chip indexes in Frankfurt, Paris and London were down 0.2% to 1.2%.
Japan's Nikkei fell 0.7%, and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1%.
Trump said he would impose additional 10% levies from February 1 on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, rising to 25% on June 1 if no deal on Greenland was reached.
Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats as blackmail, and France proposed responding with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures. The EU and Britain had agreed trade deals with the US last year.
"There is obviously a response (in financial markets) to the new tariff threats," said George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars.
"It's highly likely that the White House will use the threat of tariffs consistently, even when deals have previously been agreed."
The EU's retaliation options include a package of its own tariffs on €93-billion ($108-billion) of goods imported from the US that was suspended for six months in early August, and measures under an Anti-Coercion Instrument that could hit US services trade or investments.
The tariff threats should also make for a fraught few days at Davos as leaders from around the world gather in Switzerland at the World Economic Forum, including a large US group led by Trump.
Peel Hunt chief economist Kallum Pickering said the reaction in markets was consistent with a risk-off move, focused on potential risks to the US
"The initial reaction by financial markets is modest, albeit directionally telling," Pickering said.
DOLLAR NOT SO SAFE HAVEN
In currency markets, the euro recovered from a seven-week low, rising 0.3% to $1.1628.
"The move in EUR/USD has been relatively contained, as investors remain mindful that further escalation could ultimately weigh on the USD as well - with the "Sell America" narrative still lurking in the background," said Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, co-head of fixed income and foreign exchange research at Danske Bank.
"With a relatively quiet data calendar this week, price action in the cross is likely to be driven primarily by developments on the tariff front."
Sterling clawed its way back up to $1.3404, while safe-haven currencies benefited. The dollar eased 0.4% against the Swiss franc to 0.7993 francs, and 0.1% against the yen to 158.03.
The cash US Treasury market was shut, but 30-year bond futures fell 16 ticks.
CHINA GROWTH SLOWS
Away from the tariff threats, Chinese blue chips were little changed after data showed annual economic growth slowed to 4.5% in the December quarter, though that still topped forecasts.
Industrial output also beat the market thanks to strength in exports, but disappointing retail sales underlined the continued weakness of domestic demand.
Gold again proved to be a safe harbour, rising 1.6% to $4 689 an ounce, while silver climbed as high as $94.08.
Oil prices were down slightly on concerns that demand could suffer should the trade war escalate.
