GlobalData forecasts further upside for gold, silver prices
Intelligence and productivity platform GlobalData has revised upwards its forecasts for gold and silver prices after they surpassed the targets outlined in its previous outlook, as geopolitical uncertainty and continued investor demand continue to support the precious metals complex.
GlobalData now expects gold to rise 30% to 45% from current levels to between $6 100/oz and $6 700/oz by year-end, with upside potential toward $7 000/oz in the event of sharper risk-off conditions.
Silver is projected to jump by 87% to 135% to between $175/oz and $220/oz by the end of the year, supported by investment inflows and persistent structural deficits.
In its previous analysis, GlobalData projected gold prices in the range of $4 900/oz to $5 100/oz and expected silver to test $85/oz to $100/oz by year-end as structural deficits deepened, underpinned by strong industrial demand from solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs).
Those targets have now been reached ahead of schedule, with domestic prices in India also reflecting the shift higher in gold to around Rs150 000/10 g and silver above Rs315 000/kg, as of January 20.
“Gold and silver have exceeded our earlier targets sooner than expected, reinforcing our view that the market is pricing in a sustained risk premium. With geopolitical uncertainty still elevated and silver’s structural deficit narrative intact, we expect both metals to remain on an upward trend, although volatility, especially in silver, is likely to stay high,” says GlobalData economic research and companies director Ramnivas Mundada.
GlobalData’s updated targets are based on expectations of continued safe-haven allocation, resilient demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier and ongoing tightness in silver owing to a constrained supply response versus energy-transition-linked demand growth.
GlobalData expects gold to remain supported by safe-haven demand as investors navigate a complex geopolitical environment.
Ongoing global tensions and policy uncertainty, alongside developments referenced in public reporting on US-related Venezuela actions, have increased the frequency of risk-off episodes, which typically strengthen demand for gold, the company points out.
More recently, political and trade uncertainty has intensified after US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries.
The tariffs, assumed to be levied in addition to existing tariffs, would take effect on February 1, rise to 25% on June 1, and remain until a deal is reached for the “complete and total purchase of Greenland” by the US.
GlobalData notes that even the prospect of escalating tariffs can weaken risk appetite, lift inflation uncertainty and increase demand for defensive assets such as gold, while also supporting silver through safe-haven spillover.
Meanwhile, the direction of US interest rates, real yields and the dollar remains critical to near-term price action. Any shift toward easier financial conditions or renewed market stress could accelerate upside momentum in precious metals, the company explains.
GlobalData highlights that silver continues to be supported by its dual role as both a monetary and an industrial metal.
Industrial demand linked to the energy transition, particularly solar, remains a key pillar of the structural deficit thesis.
With supply growth lagging demand expansion, silver is likely to remain susceptible to sharp upside moves during periods of stronger investment inflows, the company predicts.
“Gold is still the primary hedge against geopolitical shocks, but silver is increasingly benefiting from both safe-haven spillover and industrial tightness. That combination can support significant upside, even though silver’s path will likely be less linear than gold’s,” Mundada avers.
