Gold prices ride geopolitical shockwaves above $4,600, but real resistance lies at $4,770oz – World Gold Council
Gold prices are getting a big boost from ongoing geopolitical turmoil, and even at $4,600 per ounce, the yellow metal won’t qualify as extremely overbought from a technical perspective until it breaches $4,770 per ounce, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
In their latest Weekly Markets Monitor, WGC analysts noted that after a challenging start to the year, gold prices are right back on their uptrend.
“Two weeks into 2026, and gold seems to have weathered the early headwinds of tax loss selling, portfolio rebalancing and precious-metal volatility with three new all-time-highs,” they wrote. “And when usually short-lived geopolitical spikes become frequent, they start to embed higher risk premia, benefiting gold.”
They added that the Trump Administration’s indictment against the Fed provided a further boost to Monday’s trading, pushing spot gold to $4,600 per ounce. “All this reinforces a message: a strategic allocation to gold benefits portfolios in an increasingly uncertain world.”
This week’s key economic data for the gold market includes Tuesday’s publication of U.S. CPI for December, which “may show a temporary uptick with the core print potentially climbing to 0.4% m/m (vs 0.2% prior) – likely due to data distortions amid the government shutdown in previous months.” In Europe, “UK November GDP (Thu) is expected to show stalled growth towards the end of 2025,” they noted. “Meanwhile, Germany’s full year 2025 GDP (Thu) may show a modest 0.3% y/y increase following two years of contraction.”
And the Wednesday release of China’s December gold exports “may show continued resilience as non-US shipments may have provided continued support, potentially lifting the trade balance and yuan,” they wrote.
Turning to the technical picture, WGC analysts said any price below $4,770 is not yet overbought based on a key Q4 chart pattern.
“Gold saw only a light setback thus far despite signs of exhaustion and diverging momentum and the market has moved to new highs after successfully holding support from its rising short-term 13-day exponential average, currently seen at US$4,447/oz,” they wrote. “We maintain our view this consolidation has been a temporary pause in the core uptrend and while support at US$4,447/oz holds the immediate risk stays seen higher with resistance seen next at US$4,600/oz, with the upper end of what we see as its ‘typical’ overbought extreme – 25% above the 200-day average – just below at US$4,585/oz.”
“Whilst we would again be wary of a fresh pullback from around US$4,600/oz, we would note that positioning is still not seen at an extreme and resistance from the October/December 2025 ‘triangle’ pattern is still seen higher at US$4,770/oz,” the analysts said. “Below support at US$4,447/oz and then US$4,408/oz would be seen to ease the immediate upside bias, but with good support still then expected to be found at US$4,345/oz, then US$4,275/oz-US$4,265/oz.”
Gold is continuing to trade near the top of its daily range after setting a new all-time high of $4,630.19 shortly before 11:20 am EST on Monday morning.
Spot gold last traded at $4,620.05 per ounce for a gain of 2.45% on the daily chart.
