Gold, silver see modest gains as marketplace monitors U.S.-Iran developments
Gold and silver prices are trading modestly up near midday Thursday. Precious metals markets are pausing late this week as the marketplace is focused on the U.S. firepower build-up in the Middle East. April gold was last up $8.80 at $5,018.00. March silver prices were up $0.422 at $78.01.
“The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon,” Axios reported Wednesday. CNN reported U.S. military strikes against Iran could occur as soon as this weekend. The Axios report said a U.S. military operation in Iran “would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela.” Axios sources said it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities. “Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency…. By bringing so much force to bear, Trump has raised expectations for what an operation will look like if a deal can't be reached. And right now, a deal does not look likely,” said Axios.
Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed policymakers lean a bit more hawkish than expected, which is price-negative for gold and silver. FOMC members signaled renewed worries over inflation with several suggesting the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation stays above their goal. Several participants said they would have preferred a post-meeting statement that raised the possibility of raising the Federal funds rate “if inflation remains at above-target levels,” the minutes said. “While the minutes fell far short of suggesting most officials were contemplating the possibility of rate increases, they made clear the Fed is shifting farther away from agreeing on another cut.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer, with crude oil prices higher, hitting an eight-month high, and trading around $66.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.1 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,670.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5,074.40 and then at $5,100.00. First support is seen at $4,900.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,854.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $63.90. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at $82.50. Next support is seen at $75.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
