Gold up, silver soars to record high on safe-haven bids

Silver’s rally this year, currently up nearly 130% year-to-date, is in part supported by tightening silver inventories and robust retail and industrial demand, particularly from the expanding solar, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

U.S. saber rattling prompts safe-haven demand for gold, silver, as crude oil also rallies after U.S. blockades oil tankers going into and leaving Venezuela. President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going into and leaving Venezuela, ratcheting up pressure on Venezuela as the U.S. builds up its military presence in the region. “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America,” Trump wrote on social media Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg. “It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before.” The move threatens to choke off the economic lifeblood of a country that was already under severe financial pressure. But it will have a less profound impact on global markets due to the diminished status of Venezuela’s oil industry. The OPEC member’s crude output has declined about 70% through more than 25 years of socialist rule to less than 1 million barrels a day.  Trump said he was also designating the Maduro regime as a “FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION.” And he accused the “illegitimate” regime of “using oil from these stolen oil fields to finance themselves, drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnapping,” said Trump on social media. Nymex crude oil futures climbed as much as 1.7% to trade near $56.50 a barrel, rebounding from the lowest level in eight months, and was also boosted by the news of potential new sanctions on Russian energy.

U.S. will further sanction Russian energy if Putin rejects peace deal. The U.S. is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase the pressure on Moscow should President Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The U.S. is considering options, such as targeting vessels in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to transport Moscow’s oil, as well as traders who facilitate the transactions, said the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The new measures could be unveiled as early as this week, some of the people said. Bloomberg said U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed the plans when he met a group of European ambassadors earlier this week. “President Trump is the President of Peace, and I reiterated that under his leadership, America will continue to prioritize ending the war in Ukraine,” Bessent wrote in a post on the social media platform X after the meeting. The Kremlin is aware that some U.S. officials are mulling plans to introduce new sanctions against Russia, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday, according to the Interfax news service. “It’s obvious that any sanctions are harmful for the process of rebuilding relations,” he said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer but off from earlier highs. Crude oil prices are higher and trading around $56.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.155%.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at the December high of $4,387.80 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $4,330.70 and then at this week’s low of $4,297.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $66.65 and then at $67.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at the overnight low of $63.725. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5.