Gold's record run is over - but the bull market isn’t
After a historic rally that rewrote the record books, gold is entering 2026 on a stable footing — and that may be exactly what long-term investors want, according to one Canadian bank.
Gold surged to 48 all-time highs in 2025, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, aggressive central-bank buying, and a global investment community increasingly uneasy about economic and political uncertainty. Although the rally has cooled, prices have since stabilized at elevated levels, reinforcing the view that gold’s recent ascent was not a speculative bubble but a structural re-rating of the metal’s role in modern portfolios, according to commodity analysts led by Christopher Louney, gold strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
According to Louney’s 2026 outlook, the path of least resistance for gold remains higher in the new year — just not at the blistering pace seen last year.
RBC expects gold to trade predominantly in a $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce range in 2026, with prices gravitating toward the upper end of that band in the second half of the year. While a repeat of 2025’s explosive gains is unlikely, the analysts said downside risk appears limited, with strong support emerging well above pre-2024 levels.
“Against the backdrop of uncertainty, gold has proven itself over the course of the year, and, absent a melting away of uncertainty, we think that the strategic underpinnings of gold point to the path of least resistance being flat to higher,” Louney said in the report.
Outlook 2026
Louney said he sees a fundamental shift in investment demand that is creating a more resilient marketplace. He noted that allocations have shifted structurally higher. What was once a standard 2–5% portfolio allocation to gold is now increasingly 5–10%, reflecting gold’s renewed status as a core portfolio diversifier rather than a crisis hedge of last resort.
He added that investor allocations look strategic and quite sustainable for the foreseeable future.
“If there is any key takeaway from 2025 that should apply to 2026, it is that, while uncertainty may take many forms, persistent uncertainty around tariffs, geopolitics, conflict, politics, government shutdowns, legislation, etc., have left investors feeling underexposed to gold. When coupled with gold’s strong price performance and lower correlations, we think it’s now more accepted as a strategic part of portfolios,” he said.
Central banks continue to build a floor in the gold market
If investors have become the visible face of gold demand, RBC expects central banks to remain its quiet but decisive backbone through the new year.
Official-sector buying exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually between 2022 and 2024, and while volumes are expected to ease, RBC still forecasts robust purchases of roughly 750 tonnes in 2026 — well above historical averages.
“Beyond the volumes themselves, the narrative of sizable ongoing central bank purchases drives the broader permission structure for investors at large to continue allocating to gold,” the analysts said.
Much of that demand continues to come from emerging-market central banks, many of which still hold less than 15% of their reserves in gold, compared with more than 30% in developed economies. The motivations are strategic: diversification away from the U.S. dollar, insulation from sanctions risk, and long-term reserve security.
