Spot silver surges, gold firms as CPI risk lifts yields
Spot silver surged and spot gold firmed late Monday as traders balanced last week’s U.S. labor-market data against higher oil prices, firmer Treasury yields and Tuesday’s April CPI release. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,736.60 an ounce, up 0.49% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $85.990, up 7.20%.
The U.S.-Iran track deteriorated again Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest ceasefire proposal and said the truce was on “life support,” leaving the Strait of Hormuz still closed and keeping the oil-risk premium embedded in metals and rates. For gold, the read-through is mixed: Hormuz stress supports defensive demand, but the oil-price channel keeps inflation and real-rate risk in the foreground.
The main domestic data point was housing: April existing-home sales rose 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate, below expectations, while the median existing-home price reached $417,700. Equities still edged to fresh records as earnings support offset oil-driven inflation concern, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, the Dow up 0.2% and the Nasdaq up 0.1%; for metals, the session’s macro mix was firmer crude, higher-rate sensitivity into CPI and no fresh U.S. data shock large enough to dislodge silver’s relative outperformance.
The next test is Tuesday’s April CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by April PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday and import-export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. A hotter inflation sequence would keep real-rate pressure in the trade, while a softer sequence would shift attention back toward gold’s defensive bid and silver’s industrial-demand premium.
Energy remained the main cross-asset pressure point. WTI crude settled near $98.07 a barrel and Brent near $104.21 after U.S.-Iran talks failed to produce a peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Higher crude kept inflation risk in focus, limiting the benefit gold might otherwise draw from geopolitical stress.
The key outside markets see crude oil sharply higher on the session, the U.S. dollar firmer and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note trading near the 4.4% area. The combination remains less clean for gold than for silver: higher yields and a firmer dollar cap non-yielding bullion, while tight physical and industrial narratives continue to support silver momentum.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the 50-day moving average at $4,769.00, with a sustained move targeting the $4,860.00 to $4,880.00 resistance zone. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $4,660.00 to $4,680.00 support zone. First resistance is seen at $4,769.00 and then at $4,860.00. First support is seen at $4,680.00 and then at $4,660.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $85.00 to $86.00 resistance area, with a move above that zone targeting $95.00 to $96.00 and then the psychologically important $100.00 level. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $78.00, with deeper downside targets at $71.00. First resistance is seen at $86.00 and then at $95.00. Next support is seen at $79.00 and then at $78.00.
