Mild price pressure on gold, silver ahead of U.S. data

Key U.S. inflation reports late this week. This morning’s personal income and outlays report is likely to show the key PCE price index rising by 0.4% month over month in February 2026, slightly above January’s 0.3% increase. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to grow by 0.4%, matching the previous month’s pace. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is likely to remain steady at 2.8%, while the core rate is expected to ease slightly to 3% from 3.1%. Overall, the report is anticipated to indicate that price pressures remained elevated, broadly in line with recent months and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in February, prior to the onset of the war with Iran. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The U.S. consumer price index report for March comes out on Friday morning.

Latest on the war in the Middle East…

--The White House says U.S. will hold direct talks with Iran, but mistrust on both sides
-- VP Vance to lead U.S. negotiations with Iran in Pakistan Saturday
--There were no reports of strikes from Arab Gulf nations for much of Wednesday
--Trump said U.S. military to remain in place around Iran until ceasefire is reached
--Lebanon remains stumbling block to negotiations after a barrage of attacks from Israel
--The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed as of today
--Some tankers in Persian Gulf are sailing east to be nearer to the Strait of Hormuz
--U.S. asks allies for quick plans to secure Hormuz after ceasefire
--Crude oil rises after biggest drop since 2020 as Hormuz stays blocked
--U.S., European stocks back in the red as ceasefire optimism fades

FOMC minutes: Fed officials worry about war stoking inflation. A growing number of Federal Reserve officials are worried the Middle East war could further stoke inflation and believe the U.S. central bank may have to consider raising interest rates, according to the minutes of the mid-March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which were released Wednesday afternoon. Most Fed officials were worried a protracted war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates, while many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases. Fed officials who expressed more worry about inflation urged their colleagues to consider adding language to their post-meeting statement that raised the scenario of hiking rates under certain conditions.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude higher and trading around $99.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.29 percent.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at $4,800.00 and then at this week’s high of $4,888.00. First support is seen at $4,700.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,626.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.21. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $77.80 and then at $80.00. Next support is seen at $72.50 and then at this week’s low of $69.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.