New catalysts are driving gold to $5,000, silver will likely sell off after $100 – BNP Paribas’ Wilson
New geopolitical uncertainties are propelling gold prices to $5,000 per ounce sooner than anticipated – and will likely necessitate an updated forecast – but the easing of physical dislocations should see silver sell off soon after reaching $100, according to David Wilson, Director of Commodities Strategy at BNP Paribas.
“Gold thrives on uncertainty,” Wilson told Bloomberg on Monday. “We saw it through last year – we were obviously hitting highs all the way through last year – and continue to see that uncertainty at play now.”
He noted two new key uncertainties that are currently driving gold prices to fresh record highs: Trump’s new Greenland tariffs and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and the rate path.
“I think every type of support that you see for gold is at play at the moment, supporting the yellow metal,” he said. “We forecast back in November that we thought that gold was going to hit $5,000 sooner or later. It looked quite a big call back in November; when you look at it now, we're at $4,700. $5,000 is not much of a stretch right now.”
Asked if this will compel BNP Paribas to raise its upside forecast for 2026, Wilson concurred.
“I think we have to start considering that, given the extent of the move we've had,” he said. “Where $5,000 looked like a big target, we’re $320 away from that. Quite clearly, given this sort of sustained uncertainty, we have to look at a higher target level. I haven't put my finger on what that's going to be yet, but quite clearly, we can go through $5,000 and if we do so, and sustain a move above $5,000, then obviously further upsides to come.”
Turning to silver, Wilson suggested that even as it continues to set new highs, the physical shortages that drove 2025’s strong rally are resolving, and the gray metal is due for a correction.
“Silver is a much thinner, less liquid market than gold and it started moving in this parabolic fashion mid-December,” he said. “There were a number of catalysts, the announcement of the collateralization of silver by India, that became more aware in Western markets late October, early November. Then we had concerns that China might start restricting silver exporting with the new licensing arrangements. Obviously, there was a concern about U.S. tariffs on critical minerals, and silver was at the head of that list. All those issues were prompting silver to be sucked out of the physical European market, into the U.S. that really, really tightened the physical market and was the catalyst for the upside.”
Then came last week’s announcement from the White House that there weren't going to be critical mineral tariffs yet, prompting a 7% correction in silver prices. Wilson noted that silver prices have since leveraged higher off of gold’s safe haven bid.
“But the physical market is definitely easing, lease rates are dropping back quite substantially, so those kinds of issues look like they're dissipating,” he said. “The other thing you have to think of, is it's a thin market. As soon as some of the speculative flows start looking to take profits, then it's quite likely we could get quite a significant correction.”
That said, Wilson still expects to see $100 per ounce silver in short order. “I think we'll probably get that sooner rather than later,” he said. “That might be the profit-taking level; we could see it drop back from that.”
