No longer outrageous: Gold now has a path to $10,000 by 2029 - Capitalight’s Schieven
A few years ago, the idea of gold prices going to $10,000 was seen as ridiculous, but now it is looking like a real possibility as global debt continues to create deepening structural shifts in the geopolitical landscape, according to one market strategist.
In an interview with Kitco News, Chantelle Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, said that because of the level of uncertainty surging through the global economy, it would not be difficult for gold prices to reach $10,000 an ounce in five to seven years.
“At the rate gold has been moving, if it continues on this trend, we would be there by 2029,” she said, noting that the key question is whether such a move would require a dramatic change in the global environment or whether current structural forces are enough to sustain the rally.
Schieven said the precious metal’s strength is being fueled not just by traditional macroeconomic factors but by what she described as a broader “tectonic shift” in the global financial and political system.
She said that recent volatility in gold prices has been tied in part to geopolitical uncertainty and new developments. Schieven pointed out that in February alone, there were only four trading days when gold failed to move more than $50 in either direction, and there were 12 days when prices swung by more than $100.
Despite the volatility, Schieven said long-term investors are still benefiting from the overall upward trend in prices. Retail investors who focus on longer time horizons are generally better positioned than short-term traders trying to capture daily price swings.
“The long-term momentum is still upward,” she said, adding that the recent price action has discouraged some speculative activity in futures markets because traders are finding it difficult to anticipate short-term moves.
Although precious metals prices continue to consolidate, Schieven said that she sees limited downside risks for gold and silver. She explained that she doesn’t see prices retreating below $5,000 or $60 an ounce.
“It would take a significant shift in geopolitical sentiment to end this current cycle, and I just don’t see that happening,” she said. “I also don’t see government debt shrinking anytime soon.”
Beyond short-term political developments, Schieven said gold’s bull market is rooted in deeper structural changes that began accelerating after Russia invaded Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments.
Those sanctions triggered a reassessment among many countries and investors about the safety of holding assets denominated in U.S. dollars or held within Western financial systems.
“That’s when central banks, governments, and wealthy individuals started saying they didn’t want to hold U.S. dollar assets that could potentially be frozen,” she said. “Gold doesn’t have that counterparty risk.”
Schieven added that rising global debt levels are also limiting the ability of central banks to aggressively tighten monetary policy. With government debt, personal debt, and mortgage costs already elevated, she said policymakers have limited room to raise interest rates without putting significant strain on the broader economy.
“I still think central banks are caught in the middle,” she said. “Raising rates too high really isn’t an option anymore because of the debt levels in the system.”
At the same time, Schieven sees the global economy entering a period of prolonged geopolitical tension and fragmentation. Conflicts in the Middle East, tensions between China and Taiwan, and the broader trend toward deglobalization are all contributing to a more unstable global environment.
“I do think global mistrust among governments is going to continue for quite a long time,” she said, adding that countries are increasingly retreating into more regional economic blocs and strategic alliances.
Schieven said this combination of geopolitical risk, rising debt levels, and political polarization is creating a supportive backdrop for gold.
“It feels like there are storms everywhere,” she said. “And gold benefits from that uncertainty.”
She also noted that as gold becomes increasingly expensive for average investors, silver may see stronger participation from retail buyers who are priced out of the gold market but still want exposure to precious metals.
“The average consumer can’t afford an ounce of gold anymore,” she said, adding that silver often becomes the entry point for investors looking for a more accessible store of value.
While Schieven acknowledged that predicting the exact timeline for gold’s next major move is difficult, she said the structural forces driving the current bull market suggest that the precious metal’s long-term trajectory remains firmly upward.
