Silver price revised significantly higher for 2026, but gold will outshine - BMO Capital Markets

In its official 2026 outlook, commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets said they see gold prices hitting their highs in the first half of the year, with an average price of $4,600 an ounce, up 5% from their previous estimate. The bank sees prices averaging around $4,550 an ounce for the year, up 3% from the previous forecast.

Although BMO analysts are bullish on the entire precious metals sector, they said they expect gold to outperform in 2026.

The bank sees silver prices averaging around $60 an ounce in the fourth quarter, representing the high for the year. BMO sees silver prices averaging $56.3 an ounce for the year. The updated outlook comes as silver prices are currently trading above $65 an ounce.

Outlook 2026

“One of the most significant upgrades we have made this quarter has been to our silver price, which we have raised by 14% to $56.3/oz for 2026. Investors have shown a greater affinity towards silver than we had expected, likely being swept up in the debasement trade as well U.S. stock building in light of its recent ‘critical mineral’ designation,” the analysts said. “We still believe the multi-year rally in gold is far from over as the yellow metal continues to benefit from a combination of strong short-term drivers (inflation concerns) and long-term drivers (monetary debasement expectations), and we still forecast upside into 2026, helped by further rate cuts. However, we have turned more cautious on other precious metals like silver and platinum in comparison, which are showing signs of being over-bought in recent weeks. These metals will happily trade like gold when in a market deficit (and can even offer significantly more torque during price rallies, as we have seen this year); however, our latest updated models suggest the deficits for these metals are narrowing.”

The analysts said gold remains well supported by macroeconomic factors, as falling interest rates next year drag down the U.S. dollar, which remains vulnerable to the global debasement trade due to rising debt levels.

“Gold's resilience post-October's sell-off shows its appeal as a diversifier and safe haven endures,” the analysts said. “We are looking at a new era for gold where a new set of demand drivers are at work, linked to the over-arching theme of ‘dedollarisation.’ ‘Geopolitical dedollarisation’ is driven by entities being incentivised to cut US dollar exposure due to threats of sanctions (e.g., Russia) or to reduce dependence on the US dollar trading system (e.g., China), with gold purchasing frequently being an important step. Conversely, ‘hedging dedollarisation’ is driven by the growing threat of monetary debasement, which comes from growing sovereign debt.”