U.S. data supports gold prices despite Iran pessimism, silver production soars as bar and coin sales rebound

In their latest update, the analysts noted that gold prices trended steady to slightly higher last week following the prior week’s strong rally.

“The fog has continued to hang thick around the negotiations, or lack thereof, surrounding a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” they wrote. “Oil flows through the strait have been almost zero since early July with stockpiles continuing to deplete, while oil prices have remained much lower than they were at the beginning of the conflict.”

They noted that the Brent-WTI spread was close to $6 per barrel as of 14 August. “[T]his is higher than when a potential deal was being talked up by the US on 5 August ($4/bbl), suggesting there has been a worsening of the chances of this deal passing imminently,” they said. “However, earlier in the conflict the spread was frequently in excess of $10/bbl and so the markets are pricing in a more optimistic picture for geopolitics and, crucially, for precious metals, fuel and energy prices than they were between March and June.”

Heraeus sees the recent economic data as broadly supportive of precious metals prices. “Along with weak jobs data, the US CPI (3.4%) and PPI (4.7%) came in at or lower than estimated,” the analysts wrote. “The net result of this has led to a ~20 bp reduction in the US 2-year Treasury yield and a reduction in the implied probability of a September rate hike by the Fed from ~80% to ~35% since their respective late-July peaks.”

On the mining majors front, Heraeus said Barrick's gold production remains on track for full-year guidance. “Attributable gold production reached 796 koz, up 11% quarter-on-quarter from 719 koz and above the 730-770 koz quarterly guidance range,” they said. Output was broadly flat year-on-year, although yield from continuing operations increased by 8% as the comparative period included ounces from divested assets… Barrick maintained its 2026 guidance of 2.90- 3.25 moz and expects production to increase sequentially, with Q4 the strongest quarter.”

Spot gold was trending higher after the North American open, and last traded at $4,425.20 for a gain of 1.11% on the session.

Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts said Pan American Silver is also on track to meet its 2026 production guidance after a very strong Q2. “Attributable silver production was 6.47 moz, broadly unchanged quarter-on-quarter but 27% higher year-on-year from 5.09 moz the year before,” they wrote. “H1’26 output reached 12.90 moz, 28% higher year-on-year and in the upper half of guidance of 12.15-13.15 moz. Pan American maintained its full-year guidance of 25-27 moz.”

And the Perth Mint’s silver bar and coin sales bounced back in July but remained below early 2026 levels.

“Silver minted product sales reached 486 koz, up 65% from 294 koz in June and 8% from 452 koz year-on-year,” the analysts noted. “The recovery coincided with the silver price touching its lowest level of 2026 during July, before ending the month at around $57.5/oz, suggesting that some price-sensitive investment demand had returned. However, sales were still around half of the 976 koz sold in March and approximately one-quarter of the almost 2 moz sold in February.”

Silver prices are outperforming on Monday morning as they have successfully reclaimed the $66 per ounce level.

Spot silver last traded at $66.389 per ounce for a gain of 2.63% on the daily chart.

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