Grid investment emerging as biggest driver of future copper demand, says analyst
Investment in electricity grids is set to become the single most important driver of copper demand over the coming decades, underpinning growth from renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs) and AI, says Wood Mackenzie head of copper research Charles Cooper.
Speaking in the first episode of Creamer Media’s new IN FOCUS copper series, Cooper said the world is entering a period of structurally higher copper demand as economies electrify, digitise and strengthen energy infrastructure.
While EVs, renewable energy and AI-related data centres often dominate discussions about future copper consumption, Cooper argued that electricity networks remain the common denominator across all major demand trends.
“Grid expansion and reinforcement and hardening, in our view, remains the single most important driver over the next couple of decades,” he said.
Modern grids were not designed to accommodate decentralised renewable energy systems, bidirectional power flows or rapid EV charging, requiring substantial investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure – all of which is copper intensive.
Unlike previous boom-and-bust patterns driven largely by China’s construction and manufacturing activity, Cooper said current demand is embedded in government regulation, industrial policy and long-term corporate investment plans, with fewer cyclical off-ramps.
AI and the expansion of data centres have added a new layer to the already strong demand picture. Wood Mackenzie estimates that data centres could contribute about one-million tonnes of additional copper demand by 2030 – modest against a 40-million-tonne market, but concentrated and potentially disruptive in a constrained supply environment.
Despite strong demand prospects, Cooper cautioned that bringing new copper supply to market remains challenging owing to permitting hurdles, rising capital requirements and project complexity.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that the industry will need to bring at least 900 000 t/y of new copper mine supply on line every year, indefinitely, to meet projected demand growth – a target he described as a rolling treadmill that the industry has broadly managed historically, but one that is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
The interview formed part of the first episode of Creamer Media’s five-part IN FOCUS series examining the trends shaping the future of the global copper market. Click here to watch to watch Episode 1 and to register for upcoming episodes.
