Gold slips, silver firms as CPI lifts yields and dollar
Spot gold prices were modestly lower and spot silver prices were firmer late Tuesday as hotter U.S. inflation, higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighed against residual haven demand tied to Middle East supply risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,714.40 an ounce, down 0.42%, while spot silver was trading at $86.440, up 0.54% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,637.90 to $4,774.20, leaving the market above the $4,700 area but off the day’s high. Silver held a wider session range of $82.940 to $87.320, keeping the gold-silver split intact after Monday’s silver-led move.
The April CPI report kept the rates headwind in place. CPI rose 0.6% month over month after a 0.9% increase in March, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%. Core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 2.8% year over year, with energy up 3.8% in April and gasoline up 5.4%.
The inflation mix left precious metals with competing signals: sticky price pressure supported the hard-asset narrative, but higher yields and a firmer dollar limited gold’s response. Silver’s outperformance reflected a market still willing to pay for the industrial and monetary mix, even as gold struggled to extend above the upper half of Tuesday’s range.
The Senate’s 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board adds a policy-independence risk premium to gold, but the immediate impact is likely capped unless markets price a faster path to Fed chair and lower real rates. For the broader market, the vote should steepen the focus on Fed credibility, the dollar and long-end Treasury yields: a Warsh chair path could support equities at the margin if rate-cut expectations build, but gold benefits most if the move weakens confidence in the Fed’s inflation-fighting independence.
The next U.S. data risk is April PPI on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by import and export prices on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Those releases will give rates traders a second read on whether April’s energy shock is feeding through producer margins and tradable goods prices.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $102.12 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $107.49. The U.S. dollar index was firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,700 level, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average near $4,757 and then the $4,860 to $4,880 resistance zone. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $4,660 to $4,680 support zone, with deeper downside targets at $4,530 to $4,550 and then the 200-day moving average near $4,329. First resistance is seen at $4,700 and then at $4,757. First support is seen at $4,660 to $4,680 and then at $4,530 to $4,550.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $85.00 to $86.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $95.00 to $96.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $83.00, with deeper downside targets at $78.00 to $79.00. First resistance is seen at $85.00 to $86.00 and then at $95.00 to $96.00. Next support is seen at $83.00 and then at $78.00 to $79.00.
