Metals recover as Iran talks cool oil, Fed minutes cap risk
Spot gold prices are sharply higher and spot silver prices are sharply higher after the close Wednesday, as oil prices fell on U.S.-Iran diplomacy and signs of renewed tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,542.50 an ounce, up 1.35%, while spot silver was trading near $75.825, up 2.91% on the session.
The day’s move partially reversed Tuesday’s metals selloff but did not remove the rate-risk overhang. The Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 meeting minutes noted that the Middle East conflict had remained a key factor for asset prices, with higher energy prices lifting near-term inflation expectations and pushing Treasury yields higher through the intermeeting period. The minutes also noted that options prices implied around a 30% probability of a rate hike by the first quarter of 2027, keeping gold’s recovery tied to whether yields can continue easing from this week’s highs.
The Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a fresh-escalation trade to a risk-premium unwind, but not a full reopening. Oil fell nearly 6% after two China-bound supertankers carrying Iraqi crude crossed the strait, with a third vessel carrying Kuwaiti oil also seen in the waterway. The three tankers carried roughly 6 million barrels, the largest daily Gulf departure since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in February. President Donald Trump said U.S.-Iran negotiations were in the “final stages,” while warning that a breakdown could bring renewed military action.
The current impact is bullish for gold through lower yields and reduced inflation pressure, but less supportive from the safe-haven side. Across other markets, the clearest moves were lower crude, lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar and firmer risk appetite.
U.S. existing-home sales increased 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, while inventory rose 5.8% to 1.47 million units and the median existing-home price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $417,700. The housing data reinforced a mixed macro picture: activity has not broken, but affordability remains constrained and the bond market is still the dominant transmission channel for metals.
U.S. equities closed higher as the drop in oil and Treasury yields restored risk appetite after a three-day slide. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,432.97, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3% to 50,009.35 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.5% to 26,270.36. Small caps led, with the Russell 2000 up 2.6% to 2,817.36, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved back below 4.60% and Brent crude fell 5.6%, easing the inflation pressure that had weighed on equities and metals earlier in the week.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $98.26 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $105.02. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,552.20 to $4,572 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,600 and then $4,629. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,537, with deeper downside targets at $4,500 and then $4,481. First resistance is seen at $4,552.20 and then at $4,572. First support is seen at $4,537 and then at $4,500.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.74 to $77.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $75.00, with deeper downside targets at $73.90 and then $72.58. First resistance is seen at $76.74 and then at $77.00. Next support is seen at $75.00 and then at $73.90.
