Silver drops 4.6% as yields rise, gold holds above $4,650
Spot gold prices are lower and spot silver prices are sharply lower after the close Thursday, as firmer Treasury yields and a stronger dollar offset safe-haven demand tied to renewed Strait of Hormuz tension. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,650.30 an ounce, down 0.80%, while spot silver was trading at $83.360, down 4.58% on the session.
April retail sales rose 0.5% to $757.1 billion after a revised 1.6% March gain, while total February-through-April sales were up 4.4% from the same period a year earlier. Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 211,000 for the week ended May 9, and continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1.782 million for the week ended May 2. The combination left the macro read mixed for metals: consumption held up, the labor market softened at the margin and rates stayed high enough to keep pressure on non-yielding assets.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant geopolitical risk variable across energy, gold and inflation-linked trades. A ship anchored 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah was seized and taken toward Iranian waters, while an Indian-flagged cargo ship sank near Oman after an attack. Iran is pressing a claim of sovereignty over the waterway, which carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war, while U.S. and Chinese officials have both said the strait must remain open.
The effect on gold is two-sided: the shipping risk sustains defensive demand, but oil near the mid-$100s feeds inflation concerns and keeps Treasury yields elevated. For other markets, the immediate impact is clearest in crude, shipping insurance, global equities exposed to energy costs and the dollar’s safe-haven bid.
U.S. equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.8% at a record 7,501.24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.7% at 50,063.46 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.9% at 26,635.22. Comex gold for May delivery settled down 0.42% at $4,678.10 per troy ounce, while Comex silver settled down 4.47% at $84.912 per troy ounce, its largest one-day drop since March.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices near $100.93 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $106.37. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,711 to $4,723 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,774. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,686, with deeper downside targets at $4,561. First resistance is seen at $4,711 and then at $4,723. First support is seen at $4,697 and then at $4,686.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $84.00 to $84.90 area, with a move above that zone targeting $85.75 and then $87.37. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $83.15, with deeper downside targets at $82.25 and then $80.63. First resistance is seen at $84.00 and then at $84.90. Next support is seen at $83.15 and then at $82.25.
