Wall Street and Main Street retreat to the fence after gold remains rangebound with central bank rate decisions on deck

Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,790.17 per ounce, and after a dip down to test support near $4,750, the yellow metal shot higher during Monday’s trading session, ultimately setting the weekly high of $4,830 per ounce shortly after 6:30 pm EDT. Prices came under heavy selling pressure thereafter, with Tuesday marking the sharpest selloff as gold dropped more than 2% to set the weekly low near $4,672 per ounce half an hour before the North American equity close.

Analysts attributed the move to a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields and growing expectations that persistent inflation would keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets were also reacting to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices sharply higher and reinforced inflation fears, which weighed on the yellow metal as traders reassessed the outlook for monetary policy.

By midweek, gold prices began to stabilize as markets digested shifting headlines around a fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. A temporary easing in geopolitical risk helped curb selling pressure, while dip buyers stepped in near key support levels around $4,650–$4,700.

On Friday, gold saw a modest rebound, supported by weak sentiment data and rising inflation expectations after the final print of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index confirmed the preliminary trend of sharply higher one-year inflation expectations and downbeat sentiment, highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy. This helped drive gold to fresh session highs near $4,740 per ounce as investors weighed its role as an inflation hedge.

However, gains remained limited as elevated oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continued to cloud the outlook for interest rates. Despite the late-week bounce, gold still posted its largest weekly decline in over a month as prices settled just above $4,700 to close the week.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street and Main Street evenly divided and uncertain about gold’s near-term direction after the precious metal’s weak week.

“Down,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Two reasons that don’t make any sense... First, tensions are escalating again between the U.S. and Iran. Thus far in this conflict, higher tensions mean lower gold and lower tensions mean higher gold. The opposite of what should happen.”

The second reason is next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. “Everyone expects rates to remain unchanged. The narrative is that gold will suffer if interest rates are not lowered. And investors have bought that silly narrative hook, line, and sinker,” Checkan said. “The reality is different. Inflation is running near 3% officially. Interest rates are at 3.5%. You simply cannot convince me that a half percent real return is enough incentive to dissuade investors from buying gold. Yet… I expect gold to fall next week.”

“Unchanged,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Gold is likely to continue some back and forth while the Iran situation remains unresolved. We have probably seen the post-conflict lows but are unlikely to see new highs until the conflict ends and monetary and fiscal concerns come back to the fore.”

“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “While gold remains in a short-term downtrend on its daily chart, the market remains fundamentally bullish. Central banks around the world continue to load up on gold as the US president’s War on Iran continues. Given this, if there is a let-up in fund selling next week, it could allow the futures market to rally on the idea of a Vacuum Trade, at least until selling interest is found up near the 50-day moving average.”

“For the record, the June futures contract hasn’t been above this technical indicator since March 18,” Newsom added.

“BULL, BULL, BULL,” said Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter. “Surprise to the upside coming.”

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, is watching volumes more than the price action for indications of gold’s future trajectory.

“I think we're in a waiting pattern,” he said. “[Traders] don't know how long this is going to drag out. We just have to wait and see where it pans out and how it pans out.”

Grady pointed out that open interest in gold has dropped dramatically and remains at low levels. “The CME lowered interest rates last night, and it's going to be effective today's close, and I think that's just because they see it. It's not them saying, ‘Hey, let's do this.’ There’s a control committee, they go to a formula and they're just saying that volatility's very light, the volumes have been anemic. I think people are just waiting. I think a lot of traders and banks, they're all in risk-off mode and I think people were just waiting for a resolution.”

Grady agreed that what risk appetite that is present in the market is gravitating to equities rather than the metals.

“Earnings season has been very good, and earnings are awesome,” he said. “People are seeing, in the equity markets, once there's a resolution [on Iran] here, we're going to start relying again on earnings, and those earnings are good. I think that's why people came in and said, ‘You know what? Everything's starting to look good,’ and they started buying equities. Metals, not so much.”

“The problem is that everything is news-driven right now,” he added. “You never know when something's going to come out. A lot of the banks, everybody's in risk-off mode right now. Nobody's really trading more than they have to; they're looking to wait for some sort of resolution.”

Looking at this week’s confirmation hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, Grady said he doesn’t think concerns about the Fed’s independence are impacting prices, and he expects Warsh will be confirmed before the end of Powell’s term on May 15.

“I think [Senator Thom] Tillis is the only one that they have to worry about, and if they can get him on board, I don't think it's going to be an issue,” he said. “I don't think he's going to be a radical Chairman. I think he'll get through.”

“It's always important to keep an eye on volumes, keep an eye on open interest. What is open interest doing, daily volumes, in the markets? A lot of people don't look at those things and I think that it tells a huge part of the story. They look at the range for a period, and in all honesty, the range isn't really so important. It's the volume: Are people trading? This is just thin, is it outgoing? I think it's important to focus on those things.”

This week, 16 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment as balanced as it’s been in a while amid the absence of clear direction. Five experts, or 31%, expected to see gold prices move higher during the week ahead, while five others, predicted a price decline. The six remaining analysts called for further consolidation during the week ahead.

Meanwhile, 16 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investor sentiment just as indecisive. 6 retail traders, or 38%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another five, or 31%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining five investors, representing 31% of the total, expected gold prices to trend sideways next week.

After weeks of sparse economic news events, the week ahead is packed with important data, but it will be central banks that dominate the calendar.

Monday evening will see the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, followed by the Tuesday morning release of U.S. Consumer Confidence for April.

Then on Wednesday morning, traders will be watching for U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits for both February and March, followed by the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision, with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision coming in the afternoon.

Thursday morning will see the Bank of England and ECB monetary policy decisions, along with U.S. GDP and PCE data for March and Q1, and weekly jobless claims. The economic calendar wraps up on Friday morning with the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI for April.

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, can see gold breaking in either direction next week, though the correlation with equities leans bullish.

“Gold stalled this past week, snapping a four-week advance,” he noted. “A break of $4600 would weaken the technical outlook, while a move above $4915 could signal a return to the $5100 area. Five G10 central banks meet next week (Fed, BoC, BOJ, ECB, BOE) but none are expected to move.”

“Strong US earnings help lift US equities and the Nikkei is at record highs,” Chandler said. “Rolling 30-day correlation between changes in gold and the S&P 500 is above 0.50, near the highest of the year.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, noted that gold is still trading in an inverse relationship with energy.

“This isn’t going to last forever, and I think everybody acknowledges that,” he said. “But I just feel that at some point here, there'll be a grind lower in the energy space once this thing settles out – assuming it does.”

“For gold and silver, you're just looking for a bottom in here,” Lusk said. “We'll see if we get negative on the year [in silver], under $70 or anywhere near there, and look to buy it. But I think the path of least resistance in the near term is lower, because even if the dust settles over there, you've still done enough damage [to the oil infrastructure] that it's going to hold things up in the near term.”

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for another month or so, Lusk expects longer-term impacts on commodity prices.

“Then Brent's going to hit up to $135 to $140 again, and you're going to be up to $120 on [WTI], easy,” he said. “That's not going to help metals, as we've seen. But we'll see what happens here; it's just hard to predict anything. Eventually, you're going to want to be a buyer back in here with gold and silver. It's just hard to know when.”

“I'd love to see this thing get down below $70 in silver, and down around unchanged on the year in gold – around $4,300, $4,400 again – before we come back in.”

Lusk said that even when Warsh does assume the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, he’s not expecting a rate cut.

“I don't think he's going to be hell-bent on cutting rates here anytime soon, no matter what the President says,” he said. “The data doesn't support it. You already have energies ripping higher due to war. Cutting rates is only going to make that worse. It ain't gonna help it. In that vein, the dollar stays bid here. Maybe they capture rallies here for a little bit. You’ve got the equities on fire, the dollar's going to be supportive. That's why I think you're getting another dip down before your rally again in the metals. Then everyone's going to take a look at it.”

“I just don't know, as it stands right now, if I want to buy at $4,700 to $4,800 in gold, or if it's way more attractive to me $300 lower, and maybe $15 to $20 lower in silver, before we see a turnaround.”

Razan Hilal, Market Analyst at Forex.com, told Kitco News that caution continues to build below $4,880 per ounce, keeping the metal vulnerable to another March-type drawdown.

“As the saying goes, history does not repeat, but it often rhymes—especially when technical signals build toward a confirmation consensus while fundamentals remain cautiously driven by rising uncertainty around Hormuz,” she wrote. “Beyond the case for another drawdown or potential surge, price action is expected to lead through the headline noise—one key level at a time—within the broader long-term framework, while fundamentals tend to follow and explain moves afterward. Fundamental drivers may revolve around expectations for the next FOMC outlook and the duration of Hormuz closure.”

“On the daily chart, gold is forming a consolidation structure with higher lows from the 4,080 level and capped highs below the 4,880 resistance,” Hilal said. “This setup resembles the structure observed after the February rebound into the March 2026 highs, leaving two key scenarios in focus: a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below trendline support.”

Under the bullish scenario, a close above $4,880 would open the path toward $4,980, at which point initial pullback risks may emerge. “These levels align with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of the March 2026 decline,” she noted. “A sustained move above 4,980 would reinforce the longer-term outlook toward 5,250, a key barrier before extending toward the 5,600–6,000 range or transitioning into another consolidation phase.”

Under the bearish scenario, Hilal said a close below consolidation support at $4,760 would extend short-term drawdown risks toward $4,660 and $4,480. “Further downside could expose 4,300, 4,180, and 4,120 as potential support zones,” she added.

“From a longer-term perspective, a confirmed break below 4,080 would increase the likelihood of a deeper move toward 3,900 and 3,500 as potential accumulation zones—potentially aligning with a broader correction in silver toward the $50 area.”

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline again next week.

“Gold has lost around 2.5% this week, drifting steadily lower and briefly dipping below $4,660 at Friday’s lows before rebounding to $4,700,” he noted. “It is clear to see how pressure on the precious metal is mounting: an upward channel formed at the end of March, from which gold broke out last week, and we saw this warning signal. A separate bearish signal was gold’s failure to break above the 50-day moving average, after which selling pressure intensified. Among the fundamental factors, the resumption of oil and dollar price rises driven by events surrounding Iran became drivers of the decline. Furthermore, stock markets in the US and some other countries continued to surge to new highs, fuelling expectations of tighter monetary policy in the coming months.”

Kuptsikevich believes a shift in the tone of monetary policy could become the main driver for markets – including gold – in the coming week. “Although no changes to key interest rates are expected in Japan, the US, Canada, the UK and the eurozone, official statements are expected to adopt a more hawkish tone,” he said. “If so, this will trigger a more pronounced price decline. However, in this scenario, we cannot rule out upside risks to gold, as we believe it is logical for central banks to focus now on economic risks, characterising the inflationary spike as temporary.”

“Our base case for next week assumes a decline to $4,500 or even a slide to $4,400, whilst the parade of central banks will add significantly to market anxiety.”

Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see higher gold prices next week, but warned that prices could retrace if they break below key support.

“Higher, unless we take out lower timeframe formations mentioned below,” he said. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. We held exhaustion at 56192 with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,526.8. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 (+15 tics per/hour) projects this down $220 minimum, $740 (+) maximum—we attained $1,155.4. The trade back below 52036 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,103.6 of pressure. The trade back below 51606 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,060.6 of pressure. The trade below 48530 (+4 tics per/hour) has brought in $753.0 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion at 40956 with a 41000 low and have rallied $817.7. The trade above 41814 has brought in $736.3 of strength. The trade above 43642 has brought in $553.5 of strength. The trade above 47119 (-12 tics per/hour) projects this upward  $155 min, $540 (+) max—we attained $205.8 so far. These are ON HOLD.”

“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $245.5 into a likely bearish correction/trend—if a correction, the minimum target is 46538,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 (+14 tics per/hour) projects this down  $45 min, (+) $225 max—we have attained $132.7. The trade below 47923 (+10 tics per/hour) projects this down $75 minimum, $245 (+) maximum—we have attained $120.1. These are ON HOLD. The trade above 46947 (-18 per/hour) now warns of decent strength--we have rallied $62.4. Decent trade below 47268 (-10 tics per/hour starting at 11:20am) will warn of decent pressure again.”

And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said precious metals markets appeared to be pausing on Friday as traders assessed the latest geopolitical developments and tried to handicap what comes next.

“Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00,” he wrote. “Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $4,771.30 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,672.20 and then at $4,626.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.”

At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,709.75 per ounce for a loss of 1.36% on the week but a gain of 0.33% on the day.