Goldman says central bank gold-buying stronger than thought, to reaccelerate
Central bank demand for gold has been stronger than previously estimated and is likely to pick up again into 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Friday, after revising its model to account for gaps in official trade data.
The bank raised its nowcast of central bank purchases to about 50 t per month in March on a 12-month moving average basis, up from 29 t under its earlier methodology.
The bank now expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026, supported by continued diversification demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Goldman said its previous estimates had undershot demand since August 2025, when UK trade data began failing to fully capture gold outflows from London vaults, pointing to unrecorded sovereign buying.
"Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident," Goldman said, citing its central bank survey and recent geopolitical developments as factors likely to reinforce demand from both official institutions and private investors over time.
It reiterated its $5,400 per ounce gold price target for end-2026, though it warned that, in the near term, bullion could face pressure if investors sell liquid assets to raise cash during market stress.
